Tennessee St.

Conference:	OVC
Expected RPI:	189.0
Current RPI:	189
Expected SOS:	174
Current SOS:	174
Current Record:	13-15
Expected Record:	13-15
Current Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Conf Record:	10-9
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-6
Current OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC Record:	3-6
Expected OOC RPI:	131
Expected OOC SOS:	25

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
13-15	189.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Tennessee St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Kansas (5.0)	B12	A	92-56	L	0%
11-18	Middle Tennessee (33.0)	CUSA	H	65-75	L	0%
11-21	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	60-52	W	100%
11-25	Kennesaw St. (301.0)	ASun	A	74-77	W	100%
12-2	Lipscomb (101.0)	ASun	H	86-95	L	0%
12-12	Alabama St. (333.0)	SWAC	A	45-64	W	100%
12-15	North Carolina A&T (238.0)	MEAC	A	64-54	L	0%
12-18	Texas (51.0)	B12	A	47-46	L	0%
12-21	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	97-48	L	0%
12-28	Tennessee Martin (306.0)	OVC	A	63-60	L	0%
12-31	Southeast Missouri St. (257.0)	OVC	A	77-65	L	0%
1-4	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	H	67-60	W	100%
1-6	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	H	81-87	L	0%
1-11	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	A	65-69	W	100%
1-13	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	82-79	L	0%
1-18	Austin Peay (164.0)	OVC	H	70-56	W	100%
1-20	Murray St. (48.0)	OVC	H	57-76	L	0%
1-25	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	H	85-57	W	100%
1-27	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	50-47	W	100%
2-1	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	A	58-61	W	100%
2-3	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	A	60-73	W	100%
2-8	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	H	64-56	W	100%
2-10	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	47-65	W	100%
2-15	Morehead St. (292.0)	OVC	H	83-74	W	100%
2-17	Eastern Kentucky (271.0)	OVC	H	59-72	L	0%
2-22	Tennessee Tech (158.0)	OVC	A	69-64	L	0%
2-24	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	84-59	L	0%
2-28	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	N	71-73	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Tennessee St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Tennessee St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Tennessee St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Tennessee St.	OVC	26.37	26.37	48.46	48.46	-0.81	-0.81
Eastern Illinois	OVC	6.10	6.10	34.62	34.62	-1.88	-1.88
Belmont	OVC	4.63	4.63	74.19	74.19	2.24	2.24
Tennessee Tech	OVC	4.56	4.56	51.72	51.72	0.16	0.16
Jacksonville St.	OVC	4.50	4.50	66.67	66.67	1.50	1.50
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	4.43	4.43	28.57	28.57	-1.90	-1.90
Morehead St.	OVC	4.40	4.40	24.00	24.00	-2.29	-2.29
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	4.37	4.37	29.63	29.63	-1.78	-1.78
Austin Peay	OVC	2.83	2.83	55.17	55.17	0.29	0.29
Murray St.	OVC	2.82	2.82	82.14	82.14	1.81	1.81
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	2.70	2.70	39.29	39.29	-0.58	-0.58
Tennessee Martin	OVC	2.70	2.70	25.00	25.00	-1.35	-1.35
Lipscomb	ASun	2.13	2.13	67.86	67.86	0.76	0.76
Kennesaw St.	ASun	1.90	1.90	29.63	29.63	-0.78	-0.78
Purdue	B10	1.88	1.88	81.82	81.82	1.19	1.19
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	1.87	1.87	75.86	75.86	0.97	0.97
Texas	B12	1.87	1.87	56.25	56.25	0.23	0.23
Alabama St.	SWAC	1.84	1.84	26.67	26.67	-0.86	-0.86
Kansas	B12	1.84	1.84	78.79	78.79	1.06	1.06
Canisius	MAAC	1.79	1.79	67.74	67.74	0.63	0.63
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	1.79	1.79	54.84	54.84	0.17	0.17
Jacksonville	ASun	0.28	0.28	37.93	37.93	-0.07	-0.07
IUPUI	Horz	0.24	0.24	32.14	32.14	-0.09	-0.09
Western Illinois	Sum	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.23	0.23	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
Chattanooga	SC	0.23	0.23	25.81	25.81	-0.11	-0.11
TCU	B12	0.22	0.22	65.62	65.62	0.07	0.07
Marshall	CUSA	0.22	0.22	69.70	69.70	0.09	0.09
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.22	0.22	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Stetson	ASun	0.22	0.22	28.57	28.57	-0.09	-0.09
USC Upstate	ASun	0.18	0.18	10.71	10.71	-0.14	-0.14
Texas Tech	B12	0.17	0.17	72.73	72.73	0.08	0.08
Kansas St.	B12	0.16	0.16	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.16	0.16	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.15	0.15	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Butler	BE	0.15	0.15	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.15	0.15	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.15	0.15	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.14	0.14	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Iowa St.	B12	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
West Virginia	B12	0.13	0.13	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.13	0.13	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
NJIT	ASun	0.13	0.13	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.12	0.12	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.12	0.12	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.12	0.12	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.12	0.12	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.08	-0.08
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.11	0.11	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Washington	P12	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Howard	MEAC	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Baylor	B12	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.11	0.11	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
San Diego St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.09	0.09	17.24	17.24	-0.06	-0.06
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.09	0.09	9.68	9.68	-0.07	-0.07
Illinois	B10	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.09	0.09	19.35	19.35	-0.05	-0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.09	0.09	3.33	3.33	-0.08	-0.08
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.09	0.09	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.08	0.08	24.14	24.14	-0.04	-0.04
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	6.67	6.67	-0.07	-0.07
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.08	0.08	36.36	36.36	-0.02	-0.02
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.07	0.07	84.85	84.85	0.05	0.05
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.06	0.06	44.44	44.44	-0.01	-0.01
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Auburn	SEC	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Dayton	A10	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Furman	SC	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Monmouth	MAAC	0.06	0.06	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.06	0.06	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Rider	MAAC	0.06	0.06	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.06	0.06	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Iowa	B10	0.06	0.06	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.05	0.05	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
Milwaukee	Horz	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Pepperdine	WCC	0.05	0.05	16.13	16.13	-0.04	-0.04
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.05	0.05	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.05	0.05	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.03	0.03	14.29	14.29	-0.02	-0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.03	0.03
Cincinnati	Amer	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Oregon	P12	0.03	0.03	64.71	64.71	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
East Carolina	Amer	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Georgetown	BE	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Texas St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Gonzaga	WCC	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	8.00	8.00	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Arizona	P12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Arizona St.	P12	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.03	0.03	87.88	87.88	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01